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文件名称：应用多元统计
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更新时间：2021-07-23 05:01:44
多元统计分析
All sciences of observation follow the same course. One
begins by observing a phenomenon, then studies all associated
circumstances, and finally, if the results of observation can be
expressed numerically [Quetelet's italics], estimates the inten-
sity of the causes that have concurred in its formation. This
course has been followed in studying purely material phenom-
ena in physics and astronomYi it will likely also be the course
followed in the study of phenomena dealing with moral behav-
ior and the intelligence of man. Statistics begins with the gath-
ering of numbersj these numbers, collected on a large scale with
care and prudence, have revealed interesting facts and have
led to the conjecture of laws ruling the moral and intellectual
world, much like those that govern the material world. It is
the whole of these laws that appears to me to constitute social
physics, a science which, while still in its infancy, becomes in-
contestably more important each day and will eventually rank
among those sciences most beneficial to man. (Quetelet, 1837)
The investigation of causal relations between economic phe-
nomena presents many problems of peculiar difficulty, and of-
fers many opportunities for fallacious conclusions. Since the
statistician can seldom or never make experiments for himself,
he has to accept the data of daily experience, and discuss as
best he can the relations of a whole group of changesj he can-
not, like the physicist, narrow down the issue to the effect of
one variation at a time. The problems of statistics are in this
sense far more complex than the problems of physics. (Yule,
1897)
Some people hate the very name of statistics, but I find
them full of beauty and interest. Whenever they are not bru-
talized, but delicately handled by the higher methods, and are
warily interpreted, their power of dealing with complicated
phenomena is extraordinary. They are the only tools by which
~
opening can be cut through the formidable thicket of diffi-
culties that bars the path of those who pursue the Science of
man. (Galton, 1908)