历经各种不顺利，耗费5小时终于搞定。
各种错误包括但不限于：
Could not connect to the destination computer ("xxxx") using the specified process ("The Web Management Service") because the server did not respond. Make sure that the process ("The Web Management Service") is started on the destination computer.
The remote server returned an error: (403) Forbidden.
404 Not Found (actually 404.7 in log file)
参考资料：
http://learn.iis.net/page.aspx/1182/troubleshooting-web-deploy-problems-with-visual-studio/