文件名称：the black swan
文件大小：352KB
文件格式：PDF
更新时间：2012-06-26 18:00:36
黑天鹅
数理，随笔，。。 Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.