文件名称：Wireless Communications The Future.pdf
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Wireless Communications Future
Contents Preface xv Acknowledgements xvii AbouttheAuthor xix 1 PredictingtheFutureisaNecessaryPartofBusiness 1 2 PreviousPredictionshavebeenAccurate 3 2.1Introduction 3 2.2TherehavebeenHugeChangesintheTelecomsClimate 3 2.3WhatwePredictedforthePeriod2000–2005 6 2.4HowWelldidwedo? 7 2.5OurPredictionsfor2005–2010 8 2.6HowGooddothesePredictionsLookNow? 9 2.7ImplicationsforForecastingtheFuture 9 3 HowtoputTogetheraForecast 11 4 TheCurrentPosition 13 4.1TheValueofaGoodUnderstandingoftheStartingPosition 13 4.2MobileCommunications 14 4.2.1Cellular 14 IntroductiontoCellular[1–3] 14 2GCellular 15 3GCellular 17 WiMaxforMobileApplications 18 ‘4G’Cellular 19 ConvergentTechnologies 21 SummaryforCellular 22 4.2.2PrivateMobileRadio 22 Introduction 22 AnalogueCommunications 23 DigitalCommunications 23 viii Contents 4.2.3MobileMeshSystems 24 4.2.4CognitiveRadio 25 4.3Fixedwireless 27 4.3.1Introduction 27 4.3.2KeyDriversforFixedWireless 27 4.3.3KeyCompetitorstoFixedWireless 28 4.3.4LikelySuccessofFixedWireless 28 4.3.5EnlargingtheMarketwithaNomadicOffering 29 4.3.6ThePrognosisforFixedWireless 29 4.4Short-rangeDevices 30 4.4.1Introduction 30 4.4.2OverviewoftheStandardsforShort-rangeDevices 31 4.4.3UltraWideband(UWB) 32 4.4.4WirelessLANs[5] 33 4.4.5BlueTooth[6] 34 4.4.6DECT 35 4.4.7Zigbee 35 4.4.8RFIDs 36 4.4.9ThePrognosisforShort-rangeDevices 36 4.5CoreNetworks 37 4.6Broadcasting 39 4.6.1ConventionalBroadcasting 39 4.6.2MobileBroadcasting 41 4.7IndustryStructure 42 4.8Summary 42 4.9Appendix:TheRoleforOFDM 43 OFDMisIncreasinglyinFavour 43 AQuickIntroductiontoOFDM 43 Multipath:theKeyDifferencebetweenOFDMandSCM 44 EqualisersmaybecometooComplextobeRealisable 45 ProblemsSpecifictoOFDM 45 SpecificApplications 45 SoisOFDMtheNew‘TechnologyofChoice’? 48 References 48 5 EndUserDemand 49 5.1WhyWhattheUserWantsisCritical 49 5.2HowPeopleReacttoNewConcepts 49 5.3ChangingPatternsofSpending 51 5.4WhattheyhaveToday 53 5.5WhattheywantNow 53 5.6Security,PrivacyandHealthConcerns 55 5.7TheHandsetSubsidyProblem 56 5.8InSummary 57 6 TechnologyProgress 59 6.1TechnologyisaCriticalInputtoanyForecast 59 6.2KeyTechnicalFundamentals:The‘True’Laws 60 Contents ix 6.3KeyTechnicalObservations:The‘Empirical’Laws 62 6.3.1Moore’sLaw 62 6.3.2Metcalfe’sLaw 63 6.3.3Gilder’sLaw 64 6.3.4Cooper’sLaw 65 6.3.5Edholm’sLaw 67 6.3.6GrowthinDiskSize 68 6.3.7Goodhart’sLaw 70 6.3.8LawsorTrends? 70 6.4Technologiesonthe‘RadarScreen’ 70 6.4.1TechnologiesEnhancingtheEfficiencyofTransmission 71 Software-definedRadio 71 SmartAntennas 71 WirelessMeshNetworking 72 InterferenceCancellation 73 CognitiveRadio 74 6.4.2TechnologiesLoweringCost:Backhaul 74 6.4.3TechnologiesEnhancingInteractionwithTerminals 76 6.4.4TechnologiesLeadingto‘ArtificialIntelligence’ 84 6.4.5CompressionTechnologies 85 6.5TechnologyPrognosis:NoKeyBreakthroughs 85 6.6ImplicationsfortheFuture 85 References 86 7 MajorWorldEvents 87 7.1Introduction 87 7.2WorldEvents 87 7.3EventsinRelatedIndustries 89 7.4Summary 90 7.5TheNextChapters 90 8 FutureMilitaryWirelessSolutions 91 PaulS.CannonandCliveR.Harding 8.1Introduction 91 8.2OperationalContext 92 8.3TechnicalFeaturesImportanttoSecureandRobustGlobalMilitary Communications 93 8.4NewPlatformsandMissions:TheirImpactonMilitaryCommunicationSystems 94 8.4.1ImpactofUnmannedVehicles 94 8.4.2ImpactofHigh-AltitudePlatforms(HAPs) 95 8.4.3ImpactofFutureInfantrySoldierTechnology 96 8.4.4ImpactofWirelessSensorNetworks 96 8.5DevelopmentsinMilitaryCommunicationsSystems 97 8.5.1Introduction 97 8.5.2VeryLow-Frequency(VLF)Communications 97 8.5.3High-Frequency(HF)Communications 98 8.5.4TerrestrialVHF,UHFandSHFTacticalCommunications 99 8.5.5SatelliteCommunications 100 8.6EmergingCommunicationsTechniques 103 8.6.1Introduction 103 x Contents 8.6.2 Ad-hocNetworks 103 8.6.3 Disruption-TolerantNetworks(DTN) 103 8.6.4 Software-DefinedRadio(SDR) 104 8.6.5 EnvironmentalModellingforCommunicationsManagement 106 8.6.6 SpectrumManagementandUtilisation 107 8.6.7 SmartAntennasforMilitaryCommunications 109 8.6.8 ThePushtoHigherRFFrequenciesandLaserCommunications 109 8.6.9 UltraWideband(UWB)Techniques 110 8.6.10CommunicationsSecurity 110 8.7SomeEmergingTechnologieswithCommunicationsRelevance 111 8.7.1 Introduction 111 8.7.2 BeyondSiliconTechnologies 111 8.7.3 PotentialofNanotechnology 111 8.7.4 QuantumCryptographyandQuantumComputing 112 8.7.5 NegativeRefractiveMaterialsandTheirApplications 113 8.7.6 Low-powerHigh-stabilityReferenceSources 113 8.7.7 PowerSources 113 8.8TheRoleforCommercialOff-the-shelfforMilitaryCommunications 114 8.9SummaryandConclusions 114 Acknowledgements 115 References 115 Biographies 115 9 FromtheFewtotheMany:MacrotoMicro 117 PeterCochrane 9.1IntheBeginning 117 9.2TheNeedforPlanning,RegulationandControl 118 9.3SomeGeneralTrends 120 9.4WhatdoPeopleWantandNeed? 122 9.5WhatcanPeopleExpect/Have? 123 9.6LikelyTechnologyDevelopments 124 9.6.1 HomeandOffice 124 9.6.2 Manufacturing,RetailandLogistics 126 9.6.3 LogisticsofThingsandPeople 126 9.6.4 ParasiticNetworks 127 9.6.5 MobileSensorNetworks 128 9.7ClustersofPeopleandThings 128 9.8Finally 129 Biography 131 10 TheRoleofAd-hocTechnologyintheBroadbandWirelessNetworks oftheFuture 133 GaryGrubeandHamidAhmadi 10.1Introduction 133 10.2TheNeedforFlexibleWirelessBroadbandSolutions 134 10.3CurrentandEmergingModelsofPeer-to-PeerBroadband Connectivity 136 10.3.1 WirelessHomeNetworks 136 10.3.2 MilitaryApplications 137 10.3.3 PublicSafety 137 Contents xi 10.3.4 PrivateandPublicTransportation 138 10.3.5 Metro-areaBroadbandNetworks 139 10.3.6 MiningandManufacturing 139 10.3.7 CorporateNetworks 139 10.3.8 SensorNetworksandThings-to-ThingsCommunication 140 10.4EnablingtheNextGenerationofAd-hocConnectivity 140 10.5 TypesofAd-hocNetwork 142 10.5.1AutonomousPeer-to-PeerNetworks 142 10.5.2HybridMeshNetworks 143 10.6 IntegratedAd-hocandWideAreaNetworks 144 10.6.1LinkingofAd-hocWorkgroups 144 10.6.2Extensionofcarrierbroadbandnetworks 144 10.6.3EnhancedNetworkPerformance 144 10.7 EnablingTechnologies 145 10.7.1Self-configurationandSelf-organisation 145 10.7.2Multi-hoppingandDynamicRoutingofDataPackets 145 10.7.3SmartSensorsandDevices 146 10.7.4Location-awareness 146 10.7.5Low-powerandEnergy-scavengingTechnologies 146 10.7.6EndUserControloverPreferencesandPrivacy 147 10.8 NewBusinessandUsageModels 147 10.9 BenefitsofAd-hocTechnologyWirelessCarriersandInternetProviders 150 10.9.1IncumbentWirelessCarriers 150 10.9.2CableBroadbandOperators 150 10.9.3‘MomandPop’Wisps 151 10.9.4GreenfieldOperators 151 10.9.5Marketers 151 10.10ADecentralisedFutureandBoundlessOpportunities 152 Reference 152 Biographies 153 11 InterferenceandOurWirelessFuture 155 DennisA.Roberson 11.1 Introduction 155 11.2 History 156 11.3 SpectrumScarcity 157 11.4 RegulatoryDirectionsTowardScarcityAmelioration 157 11.5 ScarcityAmeliorationApproaches 162 11.6 EmergingWirelessCommunicationsDevicesandSystems 162 References 165 Biography 166 12 ThreeAgesofFutureWirelessCommunications 167 SimonSaunders 12.1 Introduction 167 12.2 TheAgeofWirelessProliferation:2007to2011 169 12.2.1Introduction 169 12.2.2ServicesandApplications 170 12.2.3Devices 172 12.2.4Infrastructure 173 xii Contents 12.2.5AirInterfaces 173 12.2.6Spectrum 174 12.3 TheAgeofWirelessSimilarity:2012to2016 175 12.3.1Introduction 175 12.3.2ServicesandApplications 175 12.3.3Devices 176 12.3.4Infrastructure 176 12.3.5AirInterfaces 177 12.3.6Spectrum 178 12.4TheAgeofWirelessMundanity:2017to2026 179 12.4.1Introduction 179 12.4.2ServicesandApplications 179 12.4.3Devices 180 12.4.4Infrastructure 180 12.4.5AirInterfaces 181 12.4.6Spectrum 181 12.5ConclusionsandSummary 182 Reference 183 Biography 184 13 MobileCellularRadioTechnologyDisruption 185 StephenTempleCBE 13.1ExtrapolatingfromthePast25YearsofPublicMobileRadio 185 13.2TheLawofLargeNetworkMomentum 187 13.3Third-generationW-CDMAFuture 188 13.4Fourth-generationTechnology 190 13.5WheredoesthisLeavetheSwitch-offofGSM? 192 13.6The3GCellularRadioNetworkLandscapeTenYearsfromnow 194 13.7ConvergenceasaDisruptiveForce 195 13.7.1Convergence:MobileandBroadcasting 195 13.7.2Convergence:InternetandTelephoneServices 197 13.7.3Convergenceandthe‘BattlefortheHome’ 198 BroadbandHeavy-userHomes 200 BroadbandLight-userHomes 202 HomeswithnoDSLConnection 203 13.7.4ConvergenceandtheEvolutionofMobileHandsets 203 13.7.5SummaryImpactofConvergenceasaDisruptiveForce 204 13.8TheBlindsideForcesofDisruption 205 13.8.1Governments 205 13.8.2RegulatoryLooseCannons 206 13.8.3DisruptiveCompetitors 207 13.8.4DisruptiveSuppliers 207 13.8.5GyratingFinancialMarkets 208 13.8.6UnpredictableCustomers 208 13.8.7DisruptiveTechnologies 209 13.8.8TheGlobalPerspective 209 13.8.9SummaryVisionofthe‘Blindside’Forces 210 13.9Conclusions 210 Biography 211 Contents xiii 14 AssimilatingtheKeyFactors 213 14.1Introduction 213 14.2SummaryoftheCurrentPosition 213 14.3SummaryofEndUserDemand 214 14.4SummaryfromTechnologyAdvancesSection 214 14.5SummaryfromtheContributors 215 PaulCannon 215 PeterCochrane 216 GaryGrubeandHamidAhmadi 216 DennisRoberson 216 SimonSaunders 217 StephenTemple 217 14.6 KeyFactorsbroughtoutbytheContributors 218 14.6.1AreasnotIncludedinPreviousDiscussion 218 Connectivity 218 Backhaul 219 Applications 219 Technology 219 Regulation 219 14.6.2AreasofDisagreement 219 14.7 ReachingaVerdictontheAreasofDisagreement 220 14.8 DrawingtheseKeyFactorsTogether 221 15 TheFutureRoadmap 223 15.1 Introduction 223 15.2 Predictionsfor2011 223 15.3 Predictionsfor2016 227 15.4 Predictionsfor2021 232 15.5 Predictionsfor2026 233 15.6 KeyNewApplications 235 15.7 KeyNewTechnologies 236 15.8 KeyChangesinNetworks 237 15.9 MajorGrowthAreas 238 15.10AreaswePredictWillnotbeSuccessful 238 15.11ImplicationsforStakeholders 239 Manufacturers 239 Operators 239 ServiceProviders 240 Regulators 240 AcademicsandResearchers 240 15.12DifferencesfromthePredictionMadein2000 241 15.13TheFutureinaPage 243 15.14???AndtheElevatorPitch 244 ListofAcronyms 245 Index 249